Tuesday 6 September 2011

Palm Oil Futures Decline on Concern Stockpiles May Climb as Exports Ease

Palm oil declined on concern that stockpiles in Malaysia, the second-largest grower, may increase as exports slow after the end of the festival season.
The November-delivery contract dropped 1.1 percent to 3,018 ringgit ($1,013) per metric ton on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange. Futures gained 2.5 percent last week, the first increase in six weeks.
Shipments from Malaysia may ease as importers stocked up ahead of the Muslim festival of Eid, celebrated last week. Malaysia’s palm oil exports fell 0.6 percent to 1.62 million tons in August compared with the previous month, independent market surveyor Intertek said Sept. 2. Shipments dropped 0.5 percent in the month, Societe Generale de Surveillance estimated on Aug. 29.
“Exports will be lower, as pre-stocking was already done in July,” Arhnue Tan, senior investment analyst at ECM Libra Capital Sdn., said by phone from Kuala Lumpur today. “The resulting impact could see stock levels go up. This will be bad news” for prices, she said.
Stockpiles dropped to 2 million tons in July from 2.05 million tons in June, while exports rose 9.1 percent to a record 1.73 million tons, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said on Aug. 10. Production slipped 0.1 percent to 1.75 million tons in July. The board is scheduled to release output, inventory and shipment data for August on Sept. 12.
“Exports for August were much lower than industry expectations,” said Vimala Reddy, an analyst at Karvy Comtrade Ltd., said by phone from the Indian city of Hyderabad. “Bulk demand for edible oil is gradually decreasing. The main festive season has already come to an end.”
Demand would pick up again in a month’s time as the Hindu Diwali festival is celebrated at the end of October, Reddy said.
Soybean futures for November delivery climbed 11.25 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $14.4575 a bushel in Chicago on Sept. 2, capping a weekly gain of 1.6 percent, the third straight. All U.S. markets and government offices are closed today, in observance of Labor Day.
Palm oil for May delivery on the Dalian Commodity Exchange shed 0.5 percent to close at 8,996 yuan ($1,408) per ton, while soybean oil for delivery in the same month fell 0.6 percent to 10,426 yuan a ton.

Copper Declines to One-Week Low as Slowing Economies May Cut Into Demand

Copper fell to a one-week low in London on speculation slumping economies will reduce demand.
An index of investor confidence in the euro region declined to a two-year low this month, Limburg, Germany Sentix said today. The MSCI World (MXWO) Index of shares fell 2.1 percent today.
“It’s more just the feeling that the macro outlook is weaker,” Jim Lennon, global head of commodities research at Macquarie Group Ltd. in London, said by phone.
Copper for three-month delivery declined $116, or 1.3 percent, to $8,960 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, the lowest closing price since Aug. 24. Copper for December delivery dropped 6.35 percent, or 1.5 percent, to $4.061 a pound on the Comex in New York by 6:40 p.m. in London.
Prices fell after German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party suffered its fifth election loss this year following a campaign based on her handling of the euro-area debt crisis. Germany’s top constitutional court will rule on Sept. 7 in three cases challenging the country’s participation in a bailout of Greece and the euro-area rescue fund.
“Focus this week is likely to switch to the EU debt situation again as Germany’s government is voting on the EU bailout fund,” William Adams, an analyst at Basemetals.com in London, wrote in a report.
Stronger Dollar
Metals also declined as the U.S. Dollar Index headed for its longest winning streak since January, making dollar-priced commodities more expensive in terms of other monies.
Nickel for three-month delivery on the LME led declines among the six main metals traded on the exchange, falling 2.8 percent to $20,895 a ton. Zinc retreated 1.1 percent to $2,172 a ton, the lowest settlement since Aug. 22.
Aluminum dropped 2 percent to $2,387.50 a ton, lead slid 1 percent to $2,435 a ton and tin fell 1.2 percent to $23,950 a ton.

Gold Rises as Growth, Debt Concerns Boost Demand

Gold rose above $1,900 an ounce on speculation that economic growth will slow and Europe’s debt woes will worsen, boosting demand for a protection of wealth.
European equities dropped after an election loss for German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party spurred concern that support for bailing out Europe’s indebted nations may fade. Bullion jumped 3.1 percent on Sept. 2, the most in almost four weeks, as data showed the U.S. jobs market stalled in August, prompting renewed speculation that the country’s economy may be headed for a recession.
“With the implications of Friday’s U.S. payrolls report and intense focus on European sovereign issues this week, gold has two strong reasons to rally,” Edel Tully, a London-based analyst at UBS AG, wrote in a report. “Additional evidence of U.S. economic weakness raises the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will announce further easing this month. As European woes reclaim center-stage and in turn investor nervousness extends, these factors will support gold in the coming weeks.”
Gold for immediate delivery gained $17.82, or 0.9 percent, to $1,900.70 an ounce by 7:06 p.m. in London, after touching $1,903.52. The metal set a record at $1,913.50 on Aug. 23. In New York, gold futures for December delivery were up $26, or 1.4 percent, at $1,902.90 on the Comex, after touching $1,908.40. Floor trading in the U.S. was closed today for the Labor Day holiday.
The metal fell to $1,895 in the afternoon “fixing” in London, used by some mining companies to sell output, from $1,896.50 at this morning’s fixing.
Bull Market
Bullion is in the 11th year of a bull market, the longest winning streak since at least 1920 in London, as investors seek to diversify away from equities and some currencies. The metal is up 33 percent this year, outperforming global stocks, commodities and Treasuries. The metal climbed to a record priced in euros and British pounds today.
Merkel’s party yesterday suffered its fifth election loss this year after the chancellor failed to sway voters in her home state with a campaign based on her handling of the euro area’s debt crisis. European investor confidence fell to the lowest level in more than two years in September, a report showed today.
European sovereign-debt risk rose to a record based on closing prices, according to traders of credit-default swaps. World Bank President Robert Zoellick said in Beijing on Sept. 3 that the global economy is entering a “new danger zone” amid Europe’s debt difficulties.
Growth Concerns
“U.S. growth concerns and euro-zone debt concerns continue to overshadow markets,” James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London, wrote in a report. Gold will be supported by “investors seeking to diversify from the volatile flows in equities.”
Gold exchange-traded-product holdings fell for a third day on Sept. 2, declining 1.7 metric tons to 2,142.4 tons, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Assets reached a record 2,216.8 tons on Aug. 8.
Silver for immediate delivery declined 0.5 percent to $43.0375 an ounce. Platinum rose 0.2 percent to $1,888 an ounce. Gold’s rally pushed its price above platinum today. An ounce of platinum bought 1.19 ounces of gold on average this year, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Palladium fell 1.3 percent to $764.50 an ounce.

Crude Oil Extends Drop on Signs of Slowing U.S. Economy, Rising Stockpiles

Oil extended declines in New York as investors speculated that signs of a weakening U.S. economy and increasing crude stockpiles indicate fuel demand will falter in the world’s biggest consumer of the commodity.
Futures slid as much as 3.8 percent before a report today that may show service industries grew at the slowest pace in more than a year. Crude supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for West Texas Intermediate oil, rose 2.4 percent on Sept. 1 from Aug. 31, according to DigitalGlobe Inc. London- traded Brent widened its premium to U.S. prices.
“Oil benchmarks slipped again as fears of slowing global growth weighed on demand sentiment,” Mark Pervan, head of commodity research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne, said in a note today. “Oil prices should primarily take direction from equity markets, so expect further selling pressure this week as markets remain jittery ahead of major policy discussions.”
Crude for October delivery fell as much as $3.25 to $83.20 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $83.75 at 10:30 a.m. Sydney time. Floor trading was closed yesterday for the Labor Day holiday and electronic trades will be booked with today’s transactions for settlement purposes. The contract slipped 2.8 percent to $86.45 a barrel on Sept. 2. Prices are 12 percent higher the past year.
Brent oil for October settlement was at $110.13, up 5 cents, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark was at a premium of $26.38 to U.S. futures, compared with a record close of $26.21 on Aug. 19.
Cushing Supplies
Crude stockpiles held in floating-roof tanks at Cushing rose 850,000 barrels to 35.6 million, satellite images taken by Longmont, Colorado-based DigitalGlobe show. The Energy Department said last week that supplies, including floating and fixed tanks, totaled 33.1 million barrels as of Aug. 26.
The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index fell to 51 last month, the lowest since January 2010, from 52.7 in July, according to the median of 59 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey before a release today. Citigroup Inc. cut its 2011 global economic growth forecast yesterday to 3.1 percent from 3.7 percent.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 benchmark stock index fell 1.2 percent in Tokyo trading and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slid 1.5 percent in Sydney today as concern that Europe’s debt crisis is worsening sapped demand for riskier assets.

Gold Rises Above $1,900 an Ounce as Growth, Debt Concerns Enhance Demand

Gold, trading above $1,900 an ounce, may advance toward a record on speculation Europe’s debt crisis will worsen, damping economic growth and driving investors to protect their wealth.
Gold for immediate delivery was little changed at $1,902.05 an ounce as of 6:57 a.m. Singapore time. The metal touched $1,903.48 earlier, within 0.6 percent of the all-time high of $1,913.50 reached Aug. 23. Futures for December delivery in New York were at $1,905, up 1.5 percent from their close on Sept. 2. Floor trading in the U.S. was closed yesterday for the Labor Day holiday.
“Fear continues to dominate European markets with the debt crisis center of attention,” Lachlan Shaw, an analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, wrote in an e-mail. “The gold price rose to near record highs as investors embraced safe-haven assets.”
Gold is in the 11th year of a bull market, the longest winning streak since at least 1920 in London, as investors seek to diversify away from equities and some currencies. The metal is up 34 percent this year, outperforming global stocks, commodities and Treasuries. It climbed to a record priced in euros today.
European equities dropped yesterday after an election loss for German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party spurred concern that support may fade for bailouts of Europe’s indebted nations. U.S. stock futures fell today, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may slide for a third day. The MSCI All-Country World Index fell 2 percent yesterday, dropping for a third day, after data last week showed the U.S. jobs market stalled in August, renewing speculation the world’s largest economy may be faltering.
Silver for immediate delivery rose 0.2 percent to $43.0075 an ounce. Cash platinum was little changed at $1,887.75 an ounce, trading below gold for a second day. Palladium was little changed at $764.75 an ounce.

Thursday 2 June 2011

Gold May Advance as Economic Slowdown, Greece’s Debt Turmoil Spur Demand

Gold may advance for a second day to near one-month high, as data pointing to economic slowdown and prolonged debt turmoil in Greece spurred demand for the metal as a store of value.
Immediate-delivery gold rose as much as 0.3 percent to $1,544.38 an ounce before trading at $1,540.10 at 9:24 a.m. in Singapore. The metal reached $1,550.20 an ounce yesterday, the highest level since May 3. Cash silver strengthened 0.5 percent to $37.04 an ounce.
Manufacturing growth from China to the euro region and the U.S. slowed in May, adding to signs momentum is weakening in the global economy. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index fell more than projected to 53.5 last month, the lowest level since September 2009, U.S. data showed yesterday.
“Investors bought the safe-haven asset” after signs of economic slowdown in the U.S., Mark Pervan, head of commodity research with ANZ Banking Group Ltd., wrote in a note today. Continued central bank purchases of bullion also provided “additional support and positive sentiment for gold.”
Bullion is extending its 10-year winning streak, as retail investors, pension funds and central bankers seek to protect wealth against Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis, weaker currencies and resurgent inflation.
Russia and Mexico added gold in April now valued at almost $1 billion to their reserves. Russia bought 13.72 metric tons in the month, raising holdings to 824.83 tons, according to data on the International Monetary Fund’s website. Mexico’s assets rose 5.93 tons to 106.14 tons, the data showed this week.
Risk of Default
Greece’s risk of default was raised to 50 percent by Moody’s Investors Service as European officials rushed to put together the second bailout plan in two years to stave off renewed financial turmoil in the region.
Moody’s downgraded Greece to Caa1 from B1, putting it on a par with Cuba, according to a report published late yesterday. The move came after policy makers considered asking investors to reinvest in new Greek debt when existing bonds mature.
An ounce of gold bought 41.5687 ounces of silver today after the ratio jumped 4.8 percent yesterday, the most since May 16. The gold-to-silver ratio fell to as low as 31.7135 on April 28 and rebounded to as high as 44.3310 on May 16.
Spot palladium was little changed at $770.25 an ounce, while platinum was also little changed at $1,819.50 an ounce.

Thursday 19 May 2011

Gold May Gain for Second Straight Day on Slowdown, European Debt Concerns

Gold may advance for a second day as further signs of a global economic slowdown and protracted sovereign-debt concerns in Europe spurred demand for precious metals as a store of value.

Immediate-delivery gold traded little changed at $1,497 per ounce at 12:42 p.m. in Singapore after gaining as much as 0.3 percent to $1,500.82. Gold for June delivery in New York was also little changed at $1,497 an ounce, while silver futures jumped as much as 1.8 percent to $35.71 an ounce, extending yesterday’s 4.8 percent advance.

Japan’s economy shrank more than estimated in the first quarter after the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, sending the nation into its third recession in a decade, data showed today. Malaysia’s growth unexpectedly eased last quarter as services and manufacturing moderated, according to data yesterday. The dollar fell for a fourth day, losing 0.3 percent against a basket of six major currencies. Gold typically moves counter to the dollar.

“A weaker dollar is proving the main driver shoring up demand for gold,” said Park Jong Beom, a Seoul-based trader at Tongyang Futures Co. “Lingering concerns over Europe’s debt issues and signs of economic slowdown are also supporting precious metals as a haven asset.”

European Central Bank officials ruled out a Greek debt restructuring, clashing with political leaders over a solution to the crisis. EU finance ministers for the first time this week floated the idea of extending Greece’s debt-repayment schedule as the nation struggles to meet the terms of last year’s 110 billion-euro ($157 billion) rescue.

Decade-Long Rally

Gold strengthened 5.4 percent this year after a 30 percent rally in 2010, keeping it on course for an 11th straight annual advance as investors seek protection against the prospect of currency debasement and accelerating inflation.

Gold and silver may decline next year as governments and central banks raise interest rates and end stimulus measures, Natixis Commodity Markets Ltd. said in an e-mailed report. Gold will average $1,140 an ounce in 2012, while silver will average $19.80, according to yesterday’s report.

Immediate-delivery platinum gained as much as 1.3 percent to $1,792 an ounce and last traded at $1,784, while palladium advanced as much as 0.7 percent to $740.25 an ounce before trading at $736.25.